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In our previous transmittal letter, we observed that "2006 brings us the prospect of more balanced economic growth.” Presently, there is clear evidence that global economic expansion is more balanced than in 2005. Japan and Germany are exhibiting signs of sustainable economic growth, and the U.S. housing market continues to cool in an orderly fashion. Energy prices remain volatile with oil and natural gas prices going in opposite directions. Oil prices are at the higher end of a $58 to $70 trading range and remain sensitive to geo-political considerations, which are nearly impossible to foretell. In contrast, natural gas prices have declined to pre- Katrina levels. Stock returns in January and for the first quarter were positive. Stock valuations seem reasonable given the earnings and inflation outlook. We expect a deceleration in corporate earnings growth from low teens to high single digits this year. Earnings growth across industry sectors should be more balanced versus 2005, when energy, utilities and materials were the only sectors outperforming the market. In this environment of slowing corporate profits, we will focus on identifying companies with rising returns on invested capital and pricing power. The theme of balance also applies to the bond market, where monetary policy neutrality suggests the Federal Reserve is in the final stages of tightening. As U.S. Treasury yields approach 5% across the maturity spectrum, we are comfortable investing in short and intermediate maturities. Protectionism is an area of concern in this mid-term election year. Protectionist inroads would have adverse effects on financial markets and economic growth. The marketplace should be the disciplinarian that drives better balance in the global economy. Although our general outlook remains constructive, numerous uncertainties over the balance of the year suggest careful attention to market volatility should be rewarded. Consequently, we will continue our emphasis on high quality investments and seek to re- position assets on an opportunistic basis. |