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We expect the bull market, now over four years in duration, to continue. We believe the performance of the equity markets will narrow with less support coming from private equity initiatives and more from greater emphasis on cash flow growth. We anticipate continued interest rate increases from foreign central banks while the Federal Reserve remains on hold. This will likely cause the Dollar to experience continued weakness against the Euro and the Pound. The relationship between the Dollar and the Yen is more problematic with extremely low interest rates in Japan and technical pressures that result from the "Yen carry trade." We would view pronounced short-term strength in the Yen versus other currencies as a negative for the financial markets. The excess liquidity that has characterized the global economy for the past several years is being absorbed, in part by strong global economic growth and, in part, by tighter lending standards. One outgrowth of this excess liquidity has been reckless lending in the "sub-prime" mortgage market in the U.S. Fall out from this has caused fixed income investors to demand stricter protective covenants in new financings. This, in turn, has reduced liquidity available for private equity initiatives as well as for other high risk lending. Currently, the U.S. inflation outlook is mixed, and the financial markets are finding Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke much more difficult to read than his predecessor, Alan Greenspan. The financial markets crave a rate cut, and Mr. Bernanke has and will continue to take a longer-term view on his policy initiatives. No U.S. rate cut is in near-term prospect. Geo-political developments over the balance of 2007 could provide a market positive as voices of moderation are gaining sway in the Administration where the Secretaries of State, Defense, and Treasury and the White House Chief of Staff are directing initiatives as President Bush becomes increasing concerned about his legacy. Further, the transition from Tony Blair to Gordon Brown in Great Britain is another move of moderation while President Nicolas Sarkozy of France provides stronger and more market oriented leadership. In summary, the financial markets are becoming much more global. For equity investing, we will place ongoing emphasis on high investment quality with a focus in the areas of energy, infrastructure, and climate change. In fixed income investing, yields are insufficiently high at present to cause us to
aggressively invest longer term. This view will change if ten year Treasury yields approach 6%. We appreciate the opportunity to provide investment management guidance to you. |