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The volatility in the stock markets throughout 2007 was a reflection of five
years of lax credit practices by many of our large lending institutions that
now face higher than expected defaults and delinquencies. The uncertainty stems from the opacity of the derivatives utilized in structured finance transactions related to the credit markets. For the most part, our returns in 2007 indicate successful avoidance of these problem plagued areas and our emphasis on sectors whose fundamentals were more stable. For the long term, we believe that the ongoing correction in the credit markets is a healthy re-pricing and normalization of risk. We do not, however, fear a collapse in the market system. The central question facing the markets as the New Year begins, therefore, is whether the disruption in the financial/credit markets will result in a general economic slowdown. Recent economic indicators suggest the probability of a recession in 2008 has risen substantially. Moreover, certain sectors (e.g., residential construction; residential real estate; mortgage finance) will require additional time before recovery. Outside of those areas directly or indirectly affected by the availability of credit, however, fundamentals remain quite sound. Our long-term investment themes remain consistent: a) global infrastructure build out; b) global demand for commodities, especially agriculture; c) strong fundamentals for Energy; d) slowing economic growth in the US; e) solid growth in the Rest of the World, particularly Asia; f) alternative sources of energy; and g) traditional hedges for inflation and a weak US $. From a contrarian standpoint, we acknowledge that the Dollar, in particular, could be the first to experience substantial recovery as central banks coordinate injections of liquidity to re-stimulate the credit markets. Our outlook for next year anticipates that the economy will continue to grow, although at a much more moderate pace. Given the balance sheet repair and lack of confidence among the banks, recovery in the credit markets will likely require additional policy stimulus. We acknowledge attractive valuations for certain Financials, but we intend to exercise patience and selectivity in that sector. We also believe the markets are vulnerable to an upside surprise in inflation, and election year rhetoric will likely exacerbate already elevated levels of market volatility.
Additionally, you will find enclosed Patten and Patten's Client Privacy Statement. Thank you for the opportunity to serve as your investment manager. Best wishes for a happy, healthy, and prosperous New Year! |