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Presented in the paragraphs below are our thoughts on the current investment environment: A prominent bond fund manager recently made the following comment: “...the private capital markets have forfeited their privileged right to operate relatively autonomously because of incompetence, excessive greed, and in minor instances, fraudulent activities.” This statement was made as an obvious response to numerous revelations during an absolutely dreadful quarter for the financial markets in which the only mainstream asset class to post positive returns was short-term Treasury notes. For the stock market, the First Quarter of 2008 was the worst since 2002, and the correction prompted many market observers to draw comparisons to past periods of extreme market distress. It culminated in the collapse of investment bank Bear Stearns and aggressive actions by our Federal Reserve to restore both confidence and liquidity to a seemingly fragile capital markets system. In certain respects, our large financial institutions squandered the trust implicit in and necessary for a market-based system to function smoothly. The quote references the likelihood that regulation, oversight, and supervision will be significantly tighter going forward. We view this prospect as a welcome development, although it implies slower economic growth. Technically, the sell off was precipitated by forced liquidations among highly leveraged speculators satisfying margin calls. The magnitude of the correction was exacerbated by uncertainty, fear, and misinformation. High quality and low quality assets alike were liquidated in an indiscriminate manner as an unwinding of credit instruments and opaque derivatives spiraled dangerously out of control. Such are the characteristics of a major financial crisis that could ultimately result in economic calamity. With the Fed’s innovative and creative actions and their activist approach to the Bear Stearns debacle, we believe that much of the uncertainty has been resolved. We are also comfortable suggesting that the technical bottom for the market occurred with the Bear Stearns announcement. Fundamentally, we anticipate more bad news with regard to the credit markets. A technical bottom is not equivalent to fundamental improvement -- i.e., on the contrary, we anticipate the period of balance sheet repair for
financial institutions to be quite extended. Congress is working on a resolution to arrest the principal cause of the credit issues – i.e., a decline in the value of home prices. It is likely that the final structure of the rescue plan will prove controversial as some will benefit to a far greater degree than others. It has become quite obvious, however, that monetary policy will not be sufficient to resolve these market difficulties; so, we look forward to the passage of a timely fiscal package designed to alleviate these credit concerns. The combination of both policy actions should eventually restore confidence in the markets, improve liquidity, and reduce risk aversion. In the midst of chaos, there is often investment opportunity. We continue to seek and make selective investments in that regard, even among the Financials. Generally, we want to be positioned for an eventual recovery, and we remain confident of our long term investment themes: a) global infrastructure build out; b) global demand for commodities, especially agriculture and energy; and c) favorable economic fundamentals outside the US, especially Asia and Brazil. We are also most encouraged by the recent bounce in the Dollar. In the near term, we anticipate making tactical adjustments in response to heightened volatility. We appreciate that recent market activity is unnerving; please do not hesitate to contact us. We look forward to discussing our views with you.
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